The rage over IT outsourcing, to places such as India, has caused a number of IT professionals to wait for the proverbial sky to fall. As in most instances of course, the sky isn't really falling.

The software development landscape today, where much of the offshore outsourcing businesses lie, is much different than it was 20 or even 10 years ago. Skilled software development labor shortages a few years ago, during the Internet boom, jump-started the offshore phenomenon. Developers with only a few years of experience were commanding high salary and benefits packages, causing HR and IT managers to look for cheaper alternatives.

The software development tools today are much more powerful and easier to use. Many more people the world over instantly become eligible programmers. Combine that with improved worldwide communications and anyone on the planet with a PC, Visual Basic and a telephone line can put out their programming shingle. Besides, the precedent for outsourcing overseas has already been set in the manufacturing sector. It was really only a matter of time before the doors would open for overseas programmers.

It's not that the Indians or the Russians are smarter than we are; it's primarily an issue of availability and economics. We've made it too easy for anyone to join the software development party we've kept to ourselves for so long. People in many countries work for far less than the average U.S. programmer. All these are good arguments in support of the sky-falling theory.

But a closer look at offshore outsourcing reveals some interesting trends. Many of the offshore projects have not been successful or at least not as successful as expected. Many have accomplished the primary task but at a higher-than-anticipated cost. Others have not delivered what the business unit needed.

Many outsourced software projects are for maintenance or relatively straightforward applications, such as those in established industries such as retail. It is quite rare to see a key application for a new industry going offshore. However, it's not because the offshore programmers lack the talent. Rather it's the risks involved with logistics and team communications that essentially force key development activities to remain in the United States.

While U.S. programmers cost significantly more, they are substantially more productive. No surprise here. These programmers grew up here; they still live here; they understand the culture; they know how business operates in the United States, and they really do understand the language. They're available for impromptu technical and design discussions when required to fine-tune the product or to add key features as they're identified.

Every large software project I've ever worked on involved numerous talks every day with all sorts of groups related to the project. That's very hard to do when you're 5,000 miles and eight time zones away and you have a limited understanding of the language.

Our world is not going back to the analog days. The world will continue to digitize and automate at a faster and faster pace. This trend was set in motion more than 50 years ago and has been accelerating ever since.

This means that there will continue to be ample opportunities for developers here and overseas. In fact, the March issue of Business 2.0 claims that 850,000 skilled jobs will be created in the next four years in the top 20 major U.S. markets alone Many of these positions are software- and engineering-related occupations. This combined with the fact that U.S. baby boomers will soon be retiring in large numbers bodes well for the U.S. led technology surge.

The key for U.S. software related jobs long term is innovation. That's essentially what started the whole offshore outsourcing trend. Companies that innovate cannot afford to outsource programming overseas. They need quick results with limited baby-sitting.

As a colleague said to me over lunch the other day, our best bet is to continue educating and promoting the software industry here in the United States and to work hard. This formula has worked for our country since Ben Franklin flew his kite, and it won't change now.

A knee-jerk reaction to the relatively small number of tech jobs actually going overseas could cause many U.S. families to steer their college bound students away from technical fields. This would be the sure way of bringing down the sky for U.S. technology in the coming decades.

John Fox is vice president for SWAT Solutions of Plymouth, a software testing service for Web and client server based software. His e-mail address is jfox@swatsolutions.com